Longitudinal NT-proBNP: Associations With Echocardiographic Changes and Outcomes in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: The relationship of serial NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) measurements with changes in cardiac features and outcomes in heart failure (HF) remains incompletely understood. We determined whether common clinical covariates impact these relationships. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 2 nationwide observational populations with HF, the relationship of serial NT-proBNP measurements with serial echocardiographic parameters and outcomes was analyzed, further stratified by HF with reduced versus preserved left ventricular ejection fraction, inpatient versus outpatient enrollment, age, obesity, chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation, and attainment of ≥50% guideline-recommended doses of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors and ß-blockers. Among 1911 patients (mean±SD age, 65.1±13.4 years; 26.6% women; 62% inpatient and 38% outpatient), NT-proBNP declined overall, with more rapid declines among inpatients, those with obesity, those with atrial fibrillation, and those attaining ≥50% guideline-recommended doses. Each doubling of NT-proBNP was associated with increases in left ventricular volume (by 6.1 mL), E/e' (transmitral to mitral annular early diastolic velocity ratio) (by 1.4 points), left atrial volume (by 3.6 mL), and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (by -2.1%). The effect sizes of these associations were lower among patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, or advanced age (Pinteraction<0.001). A landmark analysis identified that an SD increase in NT-proBNP over 6 months was associated with a 27% increase in the risk of the composite event of HF hospitalization or all-cause death between 6 months and 2 years (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.15-1.40]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The relationships between NT-proBNP and structural/functional remodeling differed by age, presence of atrial fibrillation, and HF phenotypes. The association of increased NT-proBNP with increased risk of adverse outcomes was consistent in all subgroups.

Making predictions under interventions: a case study from the PREDICT-CVD cohort in New Zealand primary care.

Background: Most existing clinical prediction models do not allow predictions under interventions. Such predictions allow predicted risk under different proposed strategies to be compared and are therefore useful to support clinical decision making. We aimed to compare methodological approaches for predicting individual level cardiovascular risk under three interventions: smoking cessation, reducing blood pressure, and reducing cholesterol. Methods: We used data from the PREDICT prospective cohort study in New Zealand to calculate cardiovascular risk in a primary care setting. We compared three strategies to estimate absolute risk under intervention: (a) conditioning on hypothetical interventions in non-causal models; (b) combining existing prediction models with causal effects estimated using observational causal inference methods; and (c) combining existing prediction models with causal effects reported in published literature. Results: The median absolute cardiovascular risk among smokers was 3.9%; our approaches predicted that smoking cessation reduced this to a median between a non-causal estimate of 2.5% and a causal estimate of 2.8%, depending on estimation methods. For reducing blood pressure, the proposed approaches estimated a reduction of absolute risk from a median of 4.9% to a median between 3.2% and 4.5% (both derived from causal estimation). Reducing cholesterol was estimated to reduce median absolute risk from 3.1% to between 2.2% (non-causal estimate) and 2.8% (causal estimate). Conclusions: Estimated absolute risk reductions based on non-causal methods were different to those based on causal methods, and there was substantial variation in estimates within the causal methods. Researchers wishing to estimate risk under intervention should be explicit about their causal modelling assumptions and conduct sensitivity analysis by considering a range of possible approaches.

The Prevalence and Management of Atrial Fibrillation in New Zealand Maori Detected through an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Program.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening was incorporated into an abdominal aortic aneurysm screening (AAA) program for New Zealand (NZ) Maori. METHODS: AF screening was performed as an adjunct to AAA screening of Maori men aged 60-74 years and women aged 65-74 years registered with primary health care practices in Auckland, NZ. Pre-existing AF was determined through coded diagnoses or medications in the participant's primary care record. Subsequent audit of the record assessed accuracy of pre-screening coding, medication use and clinical follow-up. RESULTS: Among 1,933 people successfully screened, the prevalence of AF was 144 (7.4%), of which 46 (2.4% of the cohort) were patients without AF coded in the medical record. More than half of these were revealed to be known AF but that was not coded. Thus, the true prevalence of newly detected AF was 1.1% (n=21). An additional 48 (2.5%) of the cohort had been coded as AF but were not in AF at the time of screening. Among the 19 at-risk screen-detected people with AF, 10 started appropriate anticoagulation therapy within 6 months. Of the nine patients who did not commence anticoagulation therapy, five had a subsequent adverse clinical outcome in the follow-up period, including one with ischaemic stroke; two had contraindications to anticoagulants. Among those with previously diagnosed AF, the proportion receiving anticoagulation therapy rose from 57% pre-screening to 83% at 6 months post-screening (p<0.0001); among newly diagnosed AF the proportion rose from 0% to 53% (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: AF screening is a feasible low-cost adjunct to AAA screening with potential to reduce ethnic inequities in stroke incidence. However, effective measures are needed to ensure that high-risk newly diagnosed AF is managed according to best practice guidelines.

Sex differences in outcomes after acute coronary syndrome vary with age: a New Zealand national study.

AIMS: This study investigated age-specific sex differences in short- and long-term clinical outcomes following hospitalization for a first-time acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in New Zealand (NZ). METHODS AND RESULTS: Using linked national health datasets, people admitted to hospital for a first-time ACS between January 2010 and December 2016 were included. Analyses were stratified by sex and 10-year age groups. Logistic and Cox regression were used to assess in-hospital death and from discharge the primary outcome of time to first cardiovascular (CV) readmission or death and other secondary outcomes at 30 days and 2 years. Among 63 245 people (mean age 69 years, 40% women), women were older than men at the time of the ACS admission (mean age 73 vs. 66 years), with a higher comorbidity burden. Overall compared with men, women experienced higher rates of unadjusted in-hospital death (10% vs. 7%), 30-day (16% vs. 12%) and 2-year (44% vs. 34%) death, or CV readmission (all P < 0.001). Age group-specific analyses showed sex differences in outcomes varied with age, with younger women (<65 years) at higher risk than men and older women (≥85 years) at lower risk than men: unadjusted hazard ratio of 2-year death or CV readmission for women aged 18-44 years = 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-1.84] and aged ≥85 years = 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.93). The increased risk for younger women was no longer significant after multivariable adjustment whereas the increased risk for older men remained. CONCLUSION: Men and women admitted with first-time ACS have differing age and comorbidity profiles, resulting in contrasting age-specific sex differences in the risk of adverse outcomes between the youngest and oldest age groups.

Development and validation of cardiovascular risk prediction equations in 76 000 people with known cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: Multiple health administrative databases can be individually linked in Aotearoa New Zealand, using encrypted identifiers. These databases were used to develop cardiovascular risk prediction equations for patients with known cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Administrative health databases were linked to identify all people aged 18-84 years with known CVD, living in Auckland and Northland, Aotearoa New Zealand, on 1 January 2014. The cohort was followed until study outcome, death, or 5 years. The study outcome was death or hospitalization due to ischaemic heart disease, stroke, heart failure, or peripheral vascular disease. Sex-specific 5-year CVD risk prediction equations were developed using multivariable Fine and Gray models. A total of 43 862 men {median age: 67 years [interquartile range (IQR): 59-75]} and 32 724 women [median age: 70 years (IQR: 60-77)] had 14 252 and 9551 cardiovascular events, respectively. Equations were well calibrated with good discrimination. Increasing age and deprivation, recent cardiovascular hospitalization, Mori ethnicity, smoking history, heart failure, diabetes, chronic renal disease, atrial fibrillation, use of blood pressure lowering and anti-thrombotic drugs, haemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol, and creatinine were statistically significant independent predictors of the study outcome. Fourteen per cent of men and 23% of women had predicted 5-year cardiovascular risk <15%, while 28 and 24% had ≥40% risk. CONCLUSION: Robust cardiovascular risk prediction equations were developed from linked routine health databases, a currently underutilized resource worldwide. The marked heterogeneity demonstrated in predicted risk suggests that preventive therapy in people with known CVD would be better informed by risk stratification beyond a one-size-fits-all high-risk categorization.

Using regionwide New Zealand health databases, methods of predicting hospitalization risk in patients with existing heart disease were developed. Using only data from health databases, it was possible to predict the risk accurately.Among patients with existing heart disease, the predicted risk varied markedly which could help improve preventive strategies.

Widening ethnic inequities in heart failure incidence in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVE: Ethnic inequities in heart failure (HF) have been documented in several countries. This study describes New Zealand (NZ) trends in incident HF hospitalisation by ethnicity between 2006 and 2018. METHODS: Incident HF hospitalisations in ≥20-year-old subjects were identified through International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision-coded national hospitalisation records. Incidence was calculated for different ethnic, sex and age groups and were age standardised. Trends were estimated with joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Of 116 113 incident HF hospitalisations, 12.8% were Maori, 5.7% Pacific people, 3.0% Asians and 78.6% Europeans/others. 64% of Maori and Pacific patients were aged <70 years, compared with 37% of Asian and 19% of European/others. In 2018, incidence rate ratios compared with European/others were 6.0 (95% CI 4.9 to 7.3), 7.5 (95% CI 6.0 to 9.4) and 0.5 (95% CI 0.3 to 0.8) for Maori, Pacific people and Asians aged 20-49 years; 3.7 (95% CI 3.4 to 4.0), 3.6 (95% CI 3.2 to 4.1) and 0.5 (95% CI 0.4 to 0.6) for Maori, Pacific people and Asians aged 50-69 years; and 1.5 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.6), 1.5 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.7) and 0.5 (95% CI 0.5 to 0.6) for Maori, Pacific people and Asians aged ≥70 years. Between 2006 and 2018, ethnicity-specific rates diverged in ≥70-year-old subjects due to a decline in European/others (annual percentage change (APC) -2.0%, 95% CI -2.5% to -1.6%) and Asians (APC -3.3%, 95% CI -4.4% to -2.1%), but rates remained unchanged for Maori and Pacific people. In contrast, regardless of ethnicity, rates either increased or remained unchanged in <70-year-old subjects. CONCLUSION: Ethnic inequities in incident HF hospitalisation have widened in NZ over the past 13 years. Urgent action is required to address the predisposing factors that lead to development of HF in Maori and Pacific people.

Paired risk scores to predict ischaemic and bleeding risk twenty-eight days to one year after an acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: The recommended duration of dual anti-platelet therapy (DAPT) following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) varies from 1 month to 1 year depending on the balance of risks of ischaemia and major bleeding. We designed paired ischaemic and major bleeding risk scores to inform this decision. METHODS: New Zealand (NZ) patients with ACS investigated with coronary angiography are recorded in the All NZ ACS Quality Improvement registry and linked to national health datasets. Patients were aged 18-84 years (2012-2020), event free at 28 days postdischarge and without atrial fibrillation. Two 28-day to 1-year postdischarge multivariable risk prediction scores were developed: (1) cardiovascular mortality/rehospitalisation with myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke (ischaemic score) and (2) bleeding mortality/rehospitalisation with bleeding (bleeding score). FINDINGS: In 27 755 patients, there were 1200 (4.3%) ischaemic and 548 (2.0%) major bleeding events. Both scores were well calibrated with moderate discrimination performance (Harrell's c-statistic 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.77) and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0 .71), respectively). Applying these scores to the 2020 European Society of Cardiology ACS antithrombotic treatment algorithm, the 31% of the cohort at elevated (>2%) bleeding and ischaemic risk would be considered for an abbreviated DAPT duration. For those at low bleeding risk, but elevated ischaemic risk (37% of the cohort), prolonged DAPT may be appropriate, and for those with low bleeding and ischaemic risk (29% of the cohort) short duration DAPT may be justified. CONCLUSION: We present a pair of ischaemic and bleeding risk scores specifically to assist clinicians and their patients in deciding on DAPT duration beyond the first month post-ACS.

Regional Handling and Prognostic Performance of Circulating Insulin-Like Growth Factor Binding Protein-7 in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Regional handling and the prognostic performance of insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP)-7, in contrast or in combination with other candidate biomarkers, in chronic heart failure (CHF) remain uncertain. OBJECTIVES: The authors investigated the regional handling of plasma IGFBP-7 and its association with long-term outcomes in CHF in comparison with selected circulating biomarkers. METHODS: Plasma concentrations of IGFBP-7, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin-T, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein were measured prospectively in a cohort with CHF (n = 863). The primary outcome was the composite of heart failure (HF) hospitalization or all-cause mortality. In a separate non-HF cohort (n = 66) undergoing cardiac catheterization, transorgan gradients of plasma IGFBP-7 concentrations were evaluated. RESULTS: Among 863 patients (age 69 ± 14 years, 30% female, 36% HF with preserved ejection fraction), IGFBP-7 (median: 121 [IQR: 99-156] ng/mL) related inversely to left ventricular volumes but directly to diastolic function. Above the optimal cutoff, IGFBP-7 ≥110 ng/mL was independently associated with 32% increased hazard of the primary outcome: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.06-1.64). Among the 5 markers, IGFBP-7 had the highest hazard for a proportional increment in plasma concentrations independent of HF phenotype in single- and double-biomarker models, and provided incremental prognostic value beyond clinical predictors plus NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity troponin-T, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P < 0.05). Assessment of regional concentrations indicated renal secretion of IGFBP-7 in contrast to renal extraction of NT-proBNP, possible cardiac extraction of IGFBP-7 in contrast to secretion of NT-proBNP, and common hepatic extraction of both peptides. CONCLUSIONS: Transorgan regulation of IGFBP-7 is distinct from NT-proBNP. Circulating IGFBP-7 independently predicts adverse outcomes in CHF with a strong prognostic performance when compared with other well-recognized cardiac-specific or noncardiac prognostic markers.

A Risk Model to Predict Statin Non-Adherence Following an Acute Coronary Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Patients at risk of statin non-adherence are often not identified during hospital admission with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: In 19,942 patients hospitalised for ACS, statin dispensing was determined from the national pharmaceutical dispensing database. A risk score for non-adherence was developed from a multivariable Poisson regression model of associations between risk factors and the statin Medication Possession Ratio (MPR) <0.8 6-18 months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Statin MPR was <0.8 in 4,736 (24%) patients. MPR <0.8 was more likely in patients with a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) (RR 3.79, CI 95% 3.42-4.20) and those without known CVD (RR 2.25, 95% CI 2.04-2.48) who were not taking a statin on ACS admission, compared to patients with low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol <2 mmol/L who were on a statin. For patients taking a statin on admission, higher LDL was associated with MPR <0.8 (≥3 versus <2 mmol/L, RR 1.96, 95%CI 1.72-2.24). Other independent risk factors for MPR <0.8 were age <45 years, female, disadvantaged ethnic groups, and no coronary revascularisation during the ACS admission. The risk score, which included nine variables, had a C-statistic of 0.67. MPR was <0.8 in 12% of 5,348 patients with a score ≤5 (lowest quartile) and 45% of 5,858 patients with a score ≥11 (highest quartile). CONCLUSION: A risk score generated from routinely collected data predicts statin non-adherence in patients hospitalised with ACS. This may be used to target inpatient and outpatient interventions to improve medication adherence.

Prognostic modelling of clinical outcomes after first-time acute coronary syndrome in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVE: The Multi-Ethnic New Zealand Study of Acute Coronary Syndromes (MENZACS) was established to investigate the drivers of secondary events after first-time acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including addressing inequitable outcomes by ethnicity. Herein, the first clinical outcomes and prognostic modelling approach are reported. METHODS: First, in 28 176 New Zealanders with first-time ACS from a national registry, a clinical summary score for predicting 1-year death/cardiovascular readmission was created using Cox regression of 20 clinical variables. This score was then calculated in the 2015 participant MENZACS study to represent clinical risk. In MENZACS, Cox regression was used to assess N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) as a prognostic marker for death/cardiovascular readmission in four models, adjusting for (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, ethnicity; (3) clinical summary score; (4) clinical summary score and ethnicity. RESULTS: Of the 2015 MENZACS participants (mean age 61 years, 79% male, 73% European, 14% Maori, 5% Pacific people), 2003 were alive at discharge. Of the 2003, 416 (20.8%) experienced all-cause death/cardiovascular readmission over a median of 3.5 years. In a simple model, age, male sex, Maori ethnicity and NT-proBNP levels were significant predictors of outcome. After adjustment for the clinical summary score, which includes age and sex, NT-proBNP and ethnicity were no longer statistically significant: log2(NT-proBNP) hazard ratio (HR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.98 to 1.08, p=0.305; Maori ethnicity HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.62, p=0.084. CONCLUSIONS: In 2015 patients with first-time ACS, recurrent events were common (20.8%). Increasing NT-proBNP levels and Maori ethnicity were predictors of death/cardiovascular readmission, but not after adjustment for the 20 clinical risk factors represented by the clinical summary score. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12615000676516.

Titration of medications and outcomes in multi-ethnic heart failure cohorts (with reduced ejection fraction) from Singapore and New Zealand.

AIMS: We investigated titration patterns of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEis)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and beta-blockers, quality of life (QoL) over 6 months, and associated 1 year outcome [all-cause mortality/heart failure (HF) hospitalization] in a real-world population with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants with HFrEF (left ventricular ejection fraction <40%) from a prospective multi-centre study were examined for use and dose [relative to guideline-recommended maintenance dose (GRD)] of ACEis/ARBs and beta-blockers at baseline and 6 months. 'Stay low' was defined as <50% GRD at both time points, 'stay high' as ≥50% GRD, and 'up-titrate' and 'down-titrate' as dose trajectories. Among 1110 patients (mean age 63 ± 13 years, 16% women, 26% New York Heart Association Class III/IV), 714 (64%) were multi-ethnic Asians from Singapore and 396 were from New Zealand (mainly European ethnicity). Baseline use of either ACEis/ARBs or beta-blockers was high (87%). Loop diuretic was prescribed in >80% of patients, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist in about half of patients, and statins in >90% of patients. At baseline, only 11% and 9% received 100% GRD for each drug class, respectively, with about half (47%) achieving ≥50% GRD for ACEis/ARBs or beta-blockers. At 6 months, a large majority remained in the 'stay low' category, one third remained in 'stay high', whereas 10-16% up-titrated and 4-6% down-titrated. Patients with lower (vs. higher) N-terminal pro-beta-type natriuretic peptide levels were more likely to be up-titrated or be in 'stay high' for ACEis/ARBs and beta-blockers (P = 0.002). Ischaemic aetiology, prior HF hospitalization, and enrolment in Singapore (vs. New Zealand) were independently associated with higher odds of 'staying low' (all P < 0.005) for prescribed doses of ACEis/ARBs and beta-blockers. Adjusted for inverse probability weighting, ≥100% GRD for ACEis/ARBs [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.42; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24-0.73] and ≥50% GRD for beta-blockers (HR = 0.58; 95% CI 0.37-0.90) (vs. Nil) were associated with lower hazards for 1 year composite outcome. Country of enrolment did not modify the associations of dose categories with 1 year composite outcome. Higher medication doses were associated with greater improvements in QoL. CONCLUSIONS: Although HF medication use at baseline was high, most patients did not have these medications up-titrated over 6 months. Multiple clinical factors were associated with changes in medication dosages. Further research is urgently needed to investigate the causes of lack of up-titration of HF therapy (and its frequency), which could inform strategies for timely up-titration of HF therapy based on clinical and biochemical parameters.

Identification of clinically relevant cohorts of people with heart failure from electronic health data in Aotearoa: potential, pitfalls and a plan.

Heart failure (HF) is associated with high morbidity and mortality and contributes to substantial burden of disease, significant inequities and high healthcare cost globally as well as in Aotearoa. Management of chronic HF is driven by HF phenotype, defined by left ventricular ejection fraction (EF), as only those with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) have been shown to experience reduced mortality and morbidity with long-term pharmacotherapy. To ensure appropriate and equitable implementation of HF management we need to be able to identify clinically relevant cohorts of patients with HF, in particular, those with HFrEF. The ideal HF registry would incorporate and link HF diagnoses and phenotype from primary and secondary care with echocardiography and pharmacotherapy data. In this article we consider several options for identifying such cohorts from electronic health data in Aotearoa, as well as the potential and pitfalls of these options. Given the urgent need to identify people with HF according to EF phenotype, the options for identifying them from electronic health data, and the opportunities presented by health system reform, including a focus on digital solutions, we recommend the following four actions, with oversight from a national HF working group: 1) Establish a HF registry based on random and representative sampling of HF admissions; 2) investigate obtaining HF diagnosis and EF-phenotype from primary care-coded data; 3) amalgamate national echocardiography data; and 4) investigate options to enable the systematic collection of HF diagnosis and EF-phenotype from outpatient attendances. Future work will need to consider reliability and concordance of data across sources. The case for urgent action in Aotearoa is compounded by the stark inequities in the burden of HF, the likely contribution of health service factors to these inequities and the legislative requirement under the Pae Ora (Healthy Futures) Act 2022 that "the health sector should be equitable, which includes ensuring Maori and other population groups - (i) have access to services in proportion to their health needs; and (ii) receive equitable levels of service; and (iii) achieve equitable health outcomes".

Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy Before and After Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator Implantation in New Zealand (ANZACS-QI 66).

INTRODUCTION: Guidelines recommend angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB)/angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI); beta blockers; and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) in patients with symptomatic heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction before consideration of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). This study aims to investigate dispensing rates of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) before and after primary prevention ICD implantation in New Zealand. METHODS: All patients receiving a primary prevention ICD between 2009 and 2018 were identified using nationally collected data on all public hospital admissions in New Zealand. This was anonymously linked to national pharmaceutical data to obtain medication dispensing. Medications were categorised as low dose (<50% of target dose), 50-99% of target dose or target dose based on international guidelines. RESULTS: Of the 1,698 patients identified, ACEi/ARB/ARNI, beta blockers and MRA were dispensed in 80.2%, 83.6% and 45.4%, respectively, prior to ICD implant. However, ≥50% target doses of each medication class were dispensed in only 51.8%, 51.8% and 34.5%, respectively. Only 15.8% of patients were receiving ≥50% target doses of all three classes of medications. In the 1,666 patients who survived 1 year after ICD implant, the proportions of patients dispensed each class of medications remained largely unchanged. CONCLUSION: Dispensing of GDMT was suboptimal in patients before and after primary prevention ICD implantation in New Zealand, and only a minority received ≥50% target doses of all classes of medication. Interventions are needed to optimise use of these standard evidence-based medications to improve clinical outcomes and avoid unnecessary device implantation.

Cultural context in New Zealand: incorporating kaupapa Maori values in clinical research and practice.

We examined the importance of understanding and incorporating cultural context within Aotearoa/New Zealand when engaging in clinical research and practice. This paper reports on the qualitative findings of a mixed methods study aimed at determining what effect a cardiac risk reduction exercise and lifestyle management programme, embedded within a kaupapa Maori methodological approach, had on Maori participants. This methodology saw participants able to redevelop a western model cardiac risk reduction programme by introducing a Maori worldview. Our study revealed how the kaupapa Maori approach empowered participants to examine and evaluate not only their own health and lifestyle choices, but those of family and the wider community. Combining biomedical and kaupapa Maori components into the programme was found to benefit participants' mental, physical, spiritual and family well-being.

Circulating cardiac biomarkers improve risk stratification for incident cardiovascular disease in community dwelling populations.

BACKGROUND: Plasma cardiac markers may assist in prediction of incident cardiovascular disease. METHODS: The incremental value of cardiac Troponins (T and I) and NT-proBNP added to risk factors in the PREDICT score for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in primary care, was assessed in 4102 asymptomatic participants in a randomised controlled trial of Vitamin D (ViDA). Findings were corroborated in 2528 participants in a separate community-based observational registry of CVD-free volunteers (HVOLS). FINDINGS: Hazard ratios for first cardiovascular events adjusted for PREDICT risk factors, comparing fifth to first quintiles of marker plasma concentrations, were 2.57 (95% CI 1.47-4.49); 3.01 (1.66-5.48) and 3.38 (2.04-5.60) for hs-cTnI, hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP respectively. The C statistic for discrimination of the primary endpoint increased from 0.755 to 0.771 (+0.016, p = 0.01). Cardiac marker data correctly reclassified risk upwards in 6.7% of patients and downwards in 3.3%. These findings were corroborated by results from HVOLS. INTERPRETATION: Increments in plasma cardiac biomarkers robustly and reproducibly predicted increased hazard of incident CVD, independent of established risk factors, in two community-dwelling populations. Cardiac markers may augment risk assessment for onset of CVD in primary care. FUNDING: ViDA was funded by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (grant 10/400) and the Accident Compensation Corporation. HVOLS was funded by the Health Research Council of NZ Programme Grants (grants 02/152 and 08/070) and by grants from the Heart Foundation of NZ and the Christchurch Heart Institute Trust. Roche Diagnostics provided in-kind support for NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT assays and Abbott Laboratories for hs-cTnI assays.

Cardiovascular disease preventive medication dispensing for almost every New Zealander 65 years and over: a preventive treatment paradox?

OBJECTIVE: To describe the dispensing of cardiovascular disease (CVD) preventive medications among older New Zealanders with and without prior CVD or diabetes. METHODS: New Zealanders aged ≥65 years in 2013 were identified using anonymised linkage of national administrative health databases. Dispensing of blood pressure lowering (BPL), lipid lowering (LL) or antithrombotic (AT) medications, was documented, stratified by age and by history of CVD, diabetes, or neither. RESULTS: Of the 593,549 people identified, 32% had prior CVD, 14% had diabetes (of whom half also had prior CVD) and 61% had neither diagnosis. For those with prior CVD, between 79-87% were dispensed BPL and 73-79% were dispensed AT medications, across all age groups. In contrast, LL dispensing was lower than either BPL or AT in every age group, falling from 75% at age 65-69 years to 43% at 85+ years. For people with diabetes, BPL and LL dispensing was similar to those with prior CVD, but AT dispensing was approximately 20% lower. Among people without prior CVD or diabetes, both BPL and AT dispensing increased with age (from 39% and 17% at age 65-69 years to 56% and 35% at 85+ years respectively), whereas LL dispensing was 26-31% across the 65-84 year age groups, falling to 17% at 85+ years. CONCLUSION: The much higher dispensing of BPL and AT compared to LL medications with increasing age suggests a preventive treatment paradox for older people, with the medications most likely to cause adverse effects being dispensed most often.